Irish voters may want to shake the Magic 8 ball again.
It appears that, after days of counting, we are still no closer to knowing what the composition of Ireland’s next government will look like when the Dail Eireann resumes sitting on March 10.
The exit polls from The Irish Times and RTE, released after the polls closed on Friday, Feb. 27, showed that the Fine Gael/Labour coalition government was not going to get anywhere near the seat or public support count it needed to get re-elected. They were, ultimately, proven right, with a massive change in the appearance of politics in Ireland.
Amongst the weekend’s dramatic developments:
* Former Justice Minister Alan Shatter was defeated in Dublin Rathdown.
* Renua leader Lucinda Creighton has lost her seat in Dublin Bay South.
* Renua Ireland failed to elect any of its TDs.
* Children’s Minister and Fine Gael deputy leader Dr. James Reilly was defeated in Dublin Fingal.
* Labour’s Communications Minister Alex White has been defeated in Dublin Rathdown.
* Barry Cowen, the brother of former Taoiseach Brian Cowen (2008 to 2011), was elected as a Fianna Fail TD in Offaly. In other family news, Sean Haughey, the son of the late taoiseach Charlie Haughey (1979-1981, 1982, 1987-1992) was re-elected. And in Kerry, brothers Michael and Danny Healy-Rae have been elected to the first two seats in The Kingdom. Their father, Jackie, was a long time TD for northern Kerry. Interestingly, Arthur Spring, the Labour candidate, and the son of another well-known Labour leader and Tanaiste, Dick Spring, was unsuccessful in his own election attempt in Kerry.
* Former Fianna Fail minister Mary Hannifin was defeated in her attempt to return to the Dail as a TD for Dun Laoighaire, County Dublin.
* Green Party leader Eamon Ryan was elected in Dublin Bay South. So far, the party has two seats, showing it is coming back to life, after its elected TD ranks were decimated in the 2011 election.
* Emmet Stagg, a Labour TD from Kildare North, a member of parliament since 1987, was defeated.
In all of this, as Fine Gael leader and, for now, taoiseach, Enda Kenny insists, he does not intend to go anywhere, least of all from his spot as leader. Meanwhile, Fianna Fail said it would be nominating Michael Martin as Taoiseach while Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald said that Gerry Adams would be her party’s nominee for Taoiseach – y’know, just to make things really, really interesting.
“The government of Fine Gael and Labour will not be returned to office,” said Kenny in an interview with RTE from Castlebar, County Mayo, where he was re-elected as TD, a job he has held since 1975.
As of Monday night, with 152 of 158 seats filled, with 37 of 40 constituencies complete, the seats are as follows:
Fine Gael – 49
Fianna Fail – 44
Labour – 6
Sinn Fein – 22
Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit – 5
Social Democrats – 3
Green Party – 2
Independent Alliance – 5
Independents – 16
Turnout was 65.2 per cent, amongst more than 3.2 million eligible voters spread out over 40 constituencies. There were 552 candidates vying 157 seats in the 32nd Dail. Cean Comhairle (speaker) Sean Barrett was automatically returned. At dissolution on Feb. 3, Fine Gael had 67 TDS, Labour 33, Fianna Fail 21, Sinn Fein 14, the People Before Profit/Anti-Austerity Alliance 4, Renua and the Social Democrats 3 each, and Independents and others, 20. One seat was vacant.
As it stands now, on Monday evening, Fine Gael and Labour were by far the biggest losers, with Labour being the biggest loser, dropping 27 seats so far. Fine Gael lost 18 seats. Meanwhile, Fianna Fail was the biggest gainer, jumping 23 seats so far, with Sinn Fein up eight. (If Fianna Fail and Fine Gael do link up for a grand coalition, as some are suggesting, Sinn Fein may end up as the largest opposition party.)
The AAA/PBP group is up a seat, with the Social Democrats holding their seats, Renua losing all of their seats, and no change when both independent groups are lumped together.
As it stands now, it remains to be seen if Kenny and Burton can keep their jobs as party leaders.
Former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern (1997-2008) said that he believed that he does not believe that there is little chance of a government unlikely to be formed before Easter – which is interesting because the Dail will reconvene on March 10.
